Price Trend Line = Houses v Units 

The graphs above represent a trend line of the median price performance at capital city level. Source = Cotality.  Note the above graphs don’t represent ‘prices’ but show ‘price changes’ over time.

Houses – House price movements were mixed across the capitals in the past month, with stronger growth continuing in the smaller and mid-sized markets while Sydney and Melbourne softened. Perth led the results again with a solid 2.5 percent increase, followed by Brisbane at 1.7 percent. Darwin and Adelaide posted healthy gains of 1.3 percent and 1.2 percent respectively, while Hobart rose by 1.0 percent. Canberra recorded a more modest lift of 0.5 percent. In contrast, Sydney and Melbourne saw slight declines of 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent. The divergence in performance highlights the ongoing two-speed nature of the market, where affordability, local demand, and supply constraints continue to support growth in selected cities, while the larger markets ease slightly after extended growth periods.  Remember, however, for Sydney in particular, the lower (sub $1M ) end of the market is still extremely active and on the rise in many areas.

Units – Unit markets delivered strong and broadly positive results across the capitals in the past month, with several cities outperforming their house market counterparts. Perth recorded the highest growth at 2.9 percent, followed by Darwin at 2.4 percent and Brisbane at 2.0 percent. Adelaide also posted a solid increase of 1.2 percent. Sydney and Melbourne both recorded modest gains of 0.3 percent, while Hobart and Canberra saw softer increases of 0.2 percent. The consistent upward movement across all capitals highlights continued demand for more affordable property options, with units increasingly attracting both first home buyers and investors seeking better value and improved rental returns.

FORECAST - Normally, nothing hits the property market headlines like an RBA announcement.  But during the past month even the RBA was drowned out with news about the Middle East Conflict (MEC), then concerns about petrol + diesel fuel.  Despite the MEC news, the Australian Property Market continued along the path set in February with the upper end of the market ($3M+) softening and the lower end (sub $1M) absolutely powering on. 

Where is the market heading ? 

I have outlined a brief market forecast here, but my team and I will go into further detail in the April episode of Market Watch and in specialty podcasts we’ll be releasing in the next few weeks.

For buyers – there will be good opportunities to purchase properties at very attractive prices (bargains) at the upper end of the market ($3M+) for at least the next three to four months, however opportunities for bargains in lower price bands (sub $1M) will be low.  The best opportunity for buying at the lower end of the market will be in the next four weeks while we’re at peak market uncertainty.  There’s a range of changes on the immediate horizon – changes to interest rates, changes to property tax legislation, plus the MEC – however we’ll have clarity after the next RBA meeting (5 May) and the Federal Budget (12 May). The market hates uncertainty, and operates better with clarity even if the news is bad.

There’s limited chance of the housing market crashing in Australia because we have such limited supply of dwellings and an increasing number of buyers.  Just like past ‘corrections’, owners will postpone their plans to sell and will wait for ‘a better time’, even if interest rates reach uncomfortable levels.  More buyers are attracted into the property market during times of financial instability because the market is seen as a safe haven, and established property will be more attractive because construction costs are already spiking.  Rents will also rise due to diminishing supply of available rentals and low construction completions.  As always, buy when the time is right for you personally, but if you're cashed up, now is a good time to take action.

Rents - Houses v Units

Once again, please note the graphs below show ‘price changes’ not actual pricing [ eg – even though Darwin looks to be ‘on top’ this means it’s increasing faster than other locations, not that it’s more expensive.]  Overall rents look to be stabilising, with very minimal change over the past couple of months.  

Vacancy Rate

This data is drawn from SQM Research.  It represents the total vacancy rate in each major city.  A ‘healthy’ rate is around 2.5%. Anything below this means the amount of properties available for rent is not sufficient to meet the amount of people who want to rent in that particular area.  As you can see, all areas of Australia need more rental properties (all areas are under 2%), although supply is getting closer to healthier levels in Melbourne and Canberra. 

Employment 

Employment levels are an important indicator of economic health, and something the RBA monitors closely when deciding what to do with interest rates.  This information should also be monitored by property buyers as a leading indicator of locations to avoid or consider for their next purchase. 

The sweet spot for a good level of unemployment – where there’s enough jobs for those who want them - will hover between 4 and 5% depending on the rate of jobs turning over.

Anything below 4% would be considered to be low unemployment and would suggest a strong jobs market, attracting workers which increases demand for housing and pushes capital growth and rental returns upwards.

Anything in the 4.5% and upwards would reflect high unemployment which will indicate economic struggles, leading to weaker property price growth and eventually declines.

Population Growth 

This graph shows the change in population by State over the last reporting period.  The data includes changes caused by both overseas migration and also where Australians are moving from one state to the other.  Overall Australia had 306,000 migrant arrivals in 2024 -2025, a slight decrease over the previous 2023-2024 year of 400,000.

Building Approvals

The graphs below show the monthly dwellings approved in each State and Australia-wide, and also the percentage change.  In 2024, the Australian Federal Government announced a target of delivering 1,200,000 homes by 2029 and to achieve this we need to build 240,000 dwellings (houses and units) per year.  As you can see, we’re falling drastically behind on this target.

RBA Cash Rate (Interest Rate)

4.10%

Australian Dollar

1 AUD = 0.69 USD

Dwelling Values Trend Line

The graph above shows the price trend line for houses and units combined.  While this information is useful, it’s important to remember to look at pricing at suburb level and review pricing for your specific property type in order to identify opportunities and know what price to offer for your next purchase.

Dwelling values recorded a generally positive month across most capitals in the past month, with Perth continuing to lead the market at 2.5 percent growth. Brisbane followed with a strong 1.8 percent increase, while Darwin and Adelaide posted solid gains of 1.6 percent and 1.2 percent respectively. Hobart also saw a healthy rise of 0.8 percent, and Canberra recorded a more modest lift of 0.4 percent. In contrast, Sydney and Melbourne experienced slight declines of 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent. The overall result reflects a steady market with ongoing strength in more affordable cities, while the larger markets show signs of short-term consolidation rather than any significant shift in direction.  As mentioned above, it’s really the upper end of the market that’s making Sydney look slow.  Sydney suburbs in the sub $1M bracket are still moving very fast with prices moving upwards.  

Of course, in order to be successful, where you buy depends on your personal requirements as well as what’s happening in the market so book in for a Property Clarity Chat if you would like more tailored, personal recommendations.

If you’re looking for a more detailed review of the market, check out the information below.