Price Trend Line = Houses v Units 

The graphs above represent a trend line of the median price performance at capital city level. Source = Cotality.  Note the above graphs don’t represent ‘prices’ but show ‘price changes’ over time.

Houses – House values declined across most capital cities over the month, with Darwin the only market to record an increase, up 0.3%. Sydney recorded the largest monthly decline at 1.6%, followed by Brisbane at 1.5% and Adelaide at 1.4%. Perth declined by 1.2%, Canberra by 1.1% and Melbourne by 0.9%, while Hobart recorded the smallest decline at 0.4%.

Units – Unit values declined across most capital cities over the month, with Darwin once again the only market to record an increase, up 0.8%. Brisbane and Perth recorded the largest monthly declines, both falling by 1.4%, followed by Canberra at 1.3% and Adelaide at 1.1%. Sydney declined by 1.0% and Hobart by 0.7%, while Melbourne recorded the smallest decline at 0.3%.

FORECAST 

Property market prices took a pummelling over the past four weeks, which wasn’t a surprise given the forces pooling together along with the Federal Government legislative changes introduced in May.  Property owners who paid top price to purchase in the past 12 months will feel the impact of the market softening, particularly those first time buyers who used the Australian Government 5% Deposit Scheme.  Here's hoping this group isn't forced to sell before prices recover in around 12-18 months' time.

Where is the market heading?

As we move further into the Spring market, we’re expecting prices to remain soft for another few months.  Buyer caution has been building, along with decreasing borrowing capacity which will be further restricted after the latest RBA rate increase.

But don’t expect the downturn to last for too much longer.  The fact is we still have a massive housing shortage, and more people wanting (and able) to buy than the number of dwellings available to buy. 

Cotality reported 41,118 properties sold in August, and new listings in September totalled 34,486 which is 6.4% below the five year average, and 3.1% below last year.  This means property owners are postponing their plans to sell, as many will want to wait until conditions improve before putting their properties on the market.  This is why we talk about ‘the window’, and it won’t stay open for long.

Currently though, conditions for buyers are excellent and it hasn’t been this good for quite a few years.  Apart from the psychological pressure on sellers, there’s still an increased level of properties on the market.  While new listings are low compared to previous years, total listings are sitting at 139,167 which is 18% higher than this time last year and 2.2% better than the five year average. 

Small percentages make a big difference and it’s this type of market that delivers those legendary opportunities to buy good property at great prices.

Vacancy Rate

This data is drawn from SQM Research.  It represents the total vacancy rate in each major city.  A ‘healthy’ rate is around 2.5%. Anything below this means the amount of properties available for rent is not sufficient to meet the amount of people who want to rent in that particular area.  As you can see, all areas of Australia need more rental properties (all areas are under 2%), although supply is getting closer to healthier levels in Melbourne and Canberra. 

Property Listings

Overall, new listings appear to be stabilising, with activity remaining relatively steady over the past few months and currently sitting around 3% higher than the same period last year, although still 6.4% below the 5-year average. Total listings have continued to build, reaching 139,167 and sitting 18% above the same time last year, while remaining broadly in line with the 5-year average. This suggests that while new supply is fairly steady, the overall pool of available properties remains healthy and continues to provide more choice than this time last year.

Employment 

Employment levels are an important indicator of economic health, and something the RBA monitors closely when deciding what to do with interest rates.  This information should also be monitored by property buyers as a leading indicator of locations to avoid or consider for their next purchase. 

The sweet spot for a good level of unemployment – where there’s enough jobs for those who want them - will hover between 4 and 5% depending on the rate of jobs turning over.

Anything below 4% would be considered to be low unemployment and would suggest a strong jobs market, attracting workers which increases demand for housing and pushes capital growth and rental returns upwards.

Anything in the 4.5% and upwards would reflect high unemployment which will indicate economic struggles, leading to weaker property price growth and eventually declines.

Population Growth 

This graph shows the change in population by State over the last reporting period.  The data includes changes caused by both overseas migration and also where Australians are moving from one state to the other.  Overall Australia had 306,000 migrant arrivals in 2024 -2025, a slight decrease over the previous 2023-2024 year of 400,000.

Building Approvals

The graphs below show the monthly dwellings approved in each State and Australia-wide, and also the percentage change.  In 2024, the Australian Federal Government announced a target of delivering 1,200,000 homes by 2029 and to achieve this we need to build 240,000 dwellings (houses and units) per year.  As you can see, we’re falling drastically behind on this target.

RBA Cash Rate (Interest Rate)

4.60%

Australian Dollar

1 AUD = 0.69 USD

Dwelling Values Trend Line

The graph above shows the price trend line for houses and units combined.  While this information is useful, it’s important to remember to look at pricing at suburb level and review pricing for your specific property type in order to identify opportunities and know what price to offer for your next purchase.

Looking at the combined (houses + units) dwellings data, values declined across most capital cities over the month, with Darwin the only market to record an increase, up 0.4%. Brisbane recorded the largest monthly decline at 1.5%, followed by Sydney at 1.4% and Adelaide at 1.3%. Perth declined by 1.2%, Canberra by 1.1% and Melbourne by 0.7%, while Hobart recorded the smallest decline at 0.5%.

Of course, in order to be successful, where you buy depends on your personal requirements as well as what’s happening in the market so book in for a Property Clarity Chat if you would like more tailored, personal recommendations.

If you’re looking for a more detailed review of the market, check out the information below.